Essays and observations extracted from published works on contrarian investing, market survival, artificial intelligence, and the philosophy of capital allocation.
To put it in the simplest terms, it comes down to when the moment of selling occurs and when the moment of buying occurs.
Two young fish are swimming in the ocean when an older fish passes by and says, 'enjoy the warm water today.' The two younger fish look at each other and ask, 'what the heck is water?'
When I wish to interrupt one occupation, I shut its drawer and open another. They do not mix.
Your job security depends on failing conventionally rather than succeeding unconventionally. I get it.
The Yale Model died somewhere between 2018 and 2022. Not dramatically, but quietly. The arbitrage is gone, but the fees remain eternal.
Emotion is not a decorative element layered on top of cognition. It is a fundamental component of reasoning itself.
When we design systems to dominate benchmarks, we produce gold medalists. Deep Blue played chess at a superhuman level, yet it could do nothing else.
Don't you realize there's always a recession somewhere? You just have to look around. And that's often a good place to start investing.
What matters is what those managing serious amounts of capital are actually doing with their money right now. Their actions are starting to diverge from the prevailing narrative in ways that tend to matter later.